Abstract:
A non-fossil energy share of approximately 50% in total electricity generation marks China's power system transition from a supply stage dominated by fossil fuels toward a new stage in which clean electricity plays an increasingly important supporting role. The main challenge lies not in the continued expansion of installed capacity for any single generation technology, but in achieving effective coordination among growing electricity demand, complex regional resource distribution, high levels of renewable energy penetration, and ongoing power market reform. Wind and solar power will remain the primary sources of incremental electricity supply. However, whether non-fossil energy can be effectively converted into electricity that the power system can accommodate depends jointly on hydropower, nuclear power, energy storage, coal-fired power flexibility retrofits, interregional grid coordination, and demand-side response. As renewable energy penetration increases, the focus of the energy transition should shift from the speed of capacity expansion to overall system quality, from project construction to operational efficiency, and from policy-driven deployment to market-based incentives. Achieving the 2030 target requires expanding non-fossil energy supply while safeguarding energy security, strengthening the infrastructure of the new power system, improving electricity pricing and green electricity consumption mechanisms, and adopting more refined institutional arrangements to address the distribution of transition costs and benefits.