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大模型驱动的电力系统时序预测方法

Large models for time-series forecasting in power systems

  • 摘要: 电力时序预测面临预测对象多样化、数据异构和运行约束复杂等挑战。大语言模型和时间序列基础模型为跨对象复用、零样本和少样本适配、多模态融合及预测流程协同提供了新路径,但其性能来源和适用边界尚不清晰。按照知识来源及其在预测链条中的作用,将相关方法分为文本预训练语言模型、语言模型时序适配方法、时间序列基础模型、多模态预测模型和工具型智能体,并从能力需求、关键技术、典型场景和有效性证据四方面展开分析。现有证据表明,大模型的主要价值在于跨对象复用、快速适配、外部信息利用和概率预测。纯数值任务中语言预训练的独立贡献仍需验证,时间序列基础模型的零样本表现受预训练数据和目标分布影响,多模态则取决于外部信息在预测时点的可得性。未来应加强跨区域和跨对象验证,并综合评价概率校准、物理与层级一致性、资源成本和固定决策机制下的运行价值。

     

    Abstract: Power-system time-series forecasting increasingly involves diverse forecasting entities, heterogeneous data sources, and complex operational constraints. Large language models (LLMs) and time-series foundation models (TSFMs) offer new approaches to cross-entity reuse, zero- and few-shot adaptation, multimodal fusion, and forecasting workflow coordination, yet the sources of their gains and their applicability remain unclear. This paper classifies existing methods by their knowledge sources and roles in the forecasting pipeline into text-pre-trained LLMs, LLM-based time-series adaptation methods, native TSFMs, multimodal forecasting models, and tool-enabled agents. These methods are reviewed in terms of capability requirements, key techniques, application scenarios, and evidence of effectiveness. Current evidence suggests that their main value lies in cross-entity reuse, rapid adaptation, the use of external information, and probabilistic forecasting. The independent contribution of language pre-training to purely numerical tasks still requires controlled validation; zero-shot TSFM performance depends on pre-training data and target-domain shifts; and multimodal gains depend on whether external information is genuinely available at forecasting time. Future work should strengthen cross-region and cross-entity validation and jointly evaluate probabilistic calibration, physical and hierarchical consistency, resource costs, and operational value under fixed downstream decision models.

     

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