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电力碳责任因子促进新能源高质量消纳

Electric carbon responsibility factor promotes the high-quality consumption of new energy

  • 摘要: 随着高比例风光电大规模接入新型电力系统,传统静态年均电碳因子时空分辨率不足,且现有电碳因子仅核算机组实时发电直接碳排放,未能合理分摊火电调峰备用产生的碳排放,难以支撑源荷协同低碳调度。本文基于机组实时负荷率提出源-荷碳责任分摊方法,构建分时分区电力碳责任因子(Cr)多时空尺度核算模型,建立高频时序和分层分区框架体系,依托区域电网实际运行数据开展算例分析,并搭建高新能源渗透率仿真场景对比系统运行效果。结果表明,Cr具备显著时空异质性,日内波动幅度为电力碳排放因子(C)的4倍,可避免凌晨时段误导性削减负荷指令,调度逻辑契合电网实际运行需求;70%新能源渗透率仿真场景下,采用Cr引导需求响应调控,新能源消纳率由92.2%提升至99.3%,全年规模化应用可实现6亿吨碳减排,为新型电力系统源-荷协同精细化降碳提供有效的低碳调控信号。

     

    Abstract: With high-proportion wind and solar integration into the new power system, the conventional static annual average electric carbon factor suffers from insufficient temporal and spatial resolution, and existing factors only account for direct generation emissions, leaving the carbon cost of thermal peak-regulation standby unallocated and hindering refined low-carbon dispatch. This paper proposes a source–load carbon responsibility allocation method based on real-time unit load rates and builds a multi-temporal-spatial accounting model for the time- and area-specific electric carbon responsibility factor (Cr), with case studies on actual grid data and high-renewable penetration scenarios. Results show that Cr exhibits significant temporal and spatial heterogeneity, with its intraday fluctuation being four times that of the conventional factor C. It avoids misleading load reduction in early-morning hours and conforms to practical grid operation rules. Guided by Cr, demand-response regulation raises the renewable-energy consumption rate from 92.2% to 99.3% under 70% renewable-energy-penetration scenario. Nationwide large-scale application can achieve an annual carbon reduction of 600 million tons, delivering an effective low-carbon regulation signal for refined source-load coordinated decarbonization of new power systems.

     

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