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基于全纯嵌入潮流的新能源承载能力综合评估方法

Comprehensive evaluation method for renewable energy hosting capacity based on holomorphic embedding load flow

  • 摘要: 针对高比例风电、光伏接入条件下极端运行场景刻画不足及传统潮流算法在临界工况下易失效的问题,提出一种基于全纯嵌入潮流的新能源承载能力综合评估方法。首先,利用对抗场景生成对抗网络学习风光出力的时空相关性、统计特征及物理边界,生成候选场景;其次,将候选场景输入全纯嵌入潮流模型,根据节点电压越限、支路过载和供电缺额构造综合风险,并通过风险代理评价器反馈至生成器,形成场景生成与潮流风险评价的闭环训练机制;然后,采用高风险联合场景筛选与概率校正方法,结合失负荷概率和期望缺供电量确定新能源最大承载率;最后,IEEE 118节点系统算例表明,在失负荷概率限值为0.1%下,相较于常规生成对抗网络与全纯嵌入潮流相结合的方法,可规避低概率高风险场景遗漏引发的承载能力高估问题,提升新能源承载能力评估的可靠性。

     

    Abstract: To address the inadequate characterization of extreme operating scenarios under high-penetration wind and photovoltaic integration and the potential failure of conventional load-flow algorithms under critical operating conditions, this paper proposes a comprehensive renewable energy hosting capacity evaluation method based on the holomorphic embedding load-flow method (HELM). An adversarial scenario generative adversarial network (ASGAN) is employed to learn the spatio-temporal correlations, statistical characteristics, and physical limits of wind and photovoltaic power outputs and to generate candidate scenarios. The candidate scenarios are then evaluated using the holomorphic embedding load-flow model. A comprehensive risk index is constructed from bus-voltage violations, branch overloads, and power-supply deficits, and the resulting risk information is fed back to the generator through a surrogate risk evaluator, thereby forming a closed-loop training mechanism integrating scenario generation and load-flow risk assessment. A high-risk joint-scenario screening and probability-correction method is further developed, and the maximum renewable energy hosting capacity is determined using the loss-of-load probability (LOLP) and expected energy not supplied (EENS). Finally, case studies on the IEEE 118-bus system demonstrate that under the LOLP limit of 0.1%, compared with the conventional method combining generative adversarial network and HELM, the proposed approach can avoid overestimation of renewable energy hosting capacity caused by the omission of low-probability high-risk scenarios and improve the reliability of renewable energy hosting capacity evaluation.

     

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