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省间电网联络线投资综合效益评价模型及应用

A model for evaluating the comprehensive benefits of interprovincial power grid interconnections and its application

  • 摘要: 省间电网联络线兼具电能输送、清洁能源消纳和供电安全互济等功能,其投资效益受到运行情景、规划年份和省间功能定位的共同影响。现有电网投资效益评价聚焦于电量增长等单一经济指标,缺乏对可靠性、环境性等效益的综合考量,难以为大规模跨区域输电投资决策提供有效支撑。以H区域电网为研究对象,基于GenX多区域电力规划模型,构建涵盖经济性、环境性和可靠性的综合效益评价体系,设置典型负荷、尖峰负荷、新能源大发和低谷互济4类运行情景,比较当前投资方案与最优投资方案的差异,并进一步分析综合效益的时间演化和空间分配特征。研究表明,从总体效益来看,联络线投资能够改善系统综合效益,但其作用具有明显的情景依赖性,最优投资方案下4类情景的系统总成本下降0.18%~2.22%。从时间演化来看,联络线投资的长期效益会随着负荷增长和新能源规模扩大而变化。新能源大发情景下,联络线投资的经济效益逐步提高,但低谷互济和尖峰负荷情景的约束仍然存在。从空间分配与投资规模边界来看,联络线投资效益在省间呈现差异化分配格局。新能源大发情景下,新能源富集省份环境性效益增幅最为显著,受入省份主要获得经济性和环境性效益。

     

    Abstract: Interprovincial power grid interconnections serve multiple functions, including power transmission, the integration of clean energy, and mutual support for power supply reliability. Their investment returns are jointly influenced by operational scenarios, planning years, and the functional positioning of the interprovincial connections. Current evaluations of power grid investment returns focus on single economic indicators, such as electricity consumption growth, and lack a comprehensive consideration of benefits such as reliability and environmental sustainability, making it difficult to provide effective support for investment decisions regarding large-scale cross-regional power transmission. This paper takes the H regional power grid as its research subject. Based on the GenX multi-area power planning model, it constructs a comprehensive benefit evaluation system covering economic, environmental, and reliability aspects. Four operational scenarios are established—typical load, peak load, large-scale renewable energy generation, and off-peak mutual support—to compare the differences between the current investment plan and the optimal investment plan, and further analyze the temporal evolution and spatial distribution characteristics of the comprehensive benefits. The study indicates that: (1) From the perspective of overall benefits, investment in interconnectors can improve the system's comprehensive benefits, but its impact is significantly scenario-dependent; under the optimal investment scenario, the system's total cost decreases by 0.18%–2.22% across the four scenarios. (2) In terms of temporal evolution, the long-term benefits of interconnector investment will change as load grows and the scale of renewable energy expands. Under the "large-scale renewable energy" scenario, the economic benefits of interconnector investment gradually increase, but constraints remain in the "off-peak mutual support" and "peak load" scenarios. (3) In terms of spatial distribution and investment scale boundaries, the benefits of interconnector investment exhibit a differentiated distribution pattern across provinces. Under the "large-scale renewable energy" scenario, provinces rich in renewable energy experience the most significant increase in environmental benefits, while receiving provinces primarily gain economic and environmental benefits.

     

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