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极端降雨下多能微网气象风险主动防御调度

Active defensive dispatch against meteorological risks for multi-energy microgrids under extreme rainfall

  • 摘要: 针对极端降雨引起新能源可用出力下降、应急排水需求增加和主网支撑能力受限的问题,提出多能微网气象风险主动防御调度方法。基于2000—2023年北京市暖季气象数据,采用最大信息系数和斯皮尔曼秩相关系数识别复合气象关联,将105个强降雨事件削减为10个代表场景,并构造新能源可用出力、应急排水负荷、气象敏感负荷和主网输入等参数化运行边界。基于2017—2023年区域保险赔付汇总信息构建保险精算空间估值因子,并将其限定为固定物理风险暴露下的调度后区域估值系数。在统一气象场景、基础损失口径和物理可行域下,以期望成本调度的参考损失分布校准条件风险价值(conditional value-at-risk,CVaR)和GlueVaR(Glue value-at-risk)的风险项尺度,建立期望成本、CVaR和GlueVaR三类调度策略。结果表明,与期望成本调度相比,CVaR和GlueVaR调度的期望负荷削减量分别下降18.25%和18.70%,基准GlueVaR分别下降8.69%和8.91%,期望运行成本分别增加4.74%和4.86%;容量匹配消融表明,氢能链的运行作用不仅取决于储能规模,还与多能转换路径有关。该区域估值因子仅改变既定物理风险暴露的区域货币化估值,不影响物理调度结果。所提方法可为极端降雨下多能微网主动防御调度提供参考。

     

    Abstract: To address reduced renewable availability, increased emergency drainage demand, and constrained main-grid support under extreme rainfall, this paper proposes an active defensive dispatch method against meteorological risks for multi-energy microgrids. Based on warm-season meteorological data in Beijing from 2000 to 2023, the maximal information coefficient and Spearman's rank correlation coefficient are used to identify associations among compound meteorological factors. A total of 105 heavy rainfall events are reduced to 10 representative scenarios, from which parameterized operating boundaries for renewable availability, emergency drainage load, meteorologically sensitive load, and main-grid input are constructed. Aggregated regional insurance claim information from 2017 to 2023 is used to construct an actuarial spatial valuation factor, which is used solely as a post-dispatch regional valuation coefficient under fixed physical risk exposure. Under the same meteorological scenarios, baseline loss criteria, and physically feasible set, the risk-term scaling factors of conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) and GlueVaR are calibrated against the reference loss distribution of the expected-cost strategy, and three dispatch strategies based on expected cost, CVaR, and GlueVaR are formulated. Results show that, compared with expected-cost dispatch, the CVaR and GlueVaR strategies reduce expected load shedding by 18.25% and 18.70% and baseline GlueVaR by 8.69% and 8.91%, respectively, while increasing expected operating cost by 4.74% and 4.86%. Capacity-matching ablation experiments indicate that the operational role of the hydrogen energy chain depends not only on storage scale but also on multi-energy conversion pathways. The regional valuation factor changes only the monetary valuation of a given physical risk exposure and does not affect the physical dispatch results. The proposed method provides a reference for active defensive dispatch of multi-energy microgrids under extreme rainfall.

     

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