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基于预训练大语言模型的多源多尺度负荷预测方法

Multi-source and multi-scale load forecasting method based on pre-trained large language models

  • 摘要: 针对多站点居民负荷预测中多站点参数共享建模、外生变量耦合及多尺度波动等问题,提出一种基于预训练大语言模型(pre-trained large language model,PLLM)的多源多尺度负荷预测方法。构建统一时间轴下的多站点负荷数据矩阵,并通过滑动窗口方式生成单站点负荷预测样本,冻结预训练模型多数参数,仅以少量可训练参数捕捉负荷时序依赖;采用自然语言模板对时间戳和温度进行语义编码,将外生变量信息融入预测模型;引入多尺度负荷token表示,增强模型对周期规律与局部波动特征的刻画能力。以中国广西居民负荷数据集和澳大利亚Ausgrid居民用电数据集为例进行验证,并与ARIMA、LSTM、PatchTST、AutoTimes等典型模型对比。结果表明,所提方法在均方误差(MSE)和平均绝对误差(MAE)上均取得更优结果,相较于各数据集上表现最优的基线模型,在两个数据集上MSE分别降低4.8%和6.6%,有效提升了多站点居民负荷预测精度及对复杂变化模式的表征能力。

     

    Abstract: To address the challenges in multi-station residential load forecasting, including parameter-sharing modeling across multiple stations, exogenous variable coupling, and multi-scale fluctuations, this paper proposes a multi-source and multi-scale load forecasting method based on pre-trained large language model (PLLM). A multi-station load data matrix under a unified time axis is constructed, and single-station load forecasting samples are generated via the sliding-window approach. Most parameters of the pre-trained model are frozen so that temporal dependencies of loads can be captured with a small number of trainable parameters. Natural language templates are employed for semantic encoding of timestamps and temperature data, so as to integrate exogenous variable information into the forecasting model. Multi-scale load token representations are introduced to characterize periodic patterns and local fluctuations. The proposed method is validated using the Guangxi residential load dataset (China) and the Ausgrid load dataset (Australia), and compared with representative models including ARIMA, LSTM, PatchTST and AutoTimes. Results show that the proposed method outperforms ARIMA, LSTM, PatchTST, AutoTimes and other typical models in terms of MSE and MAE. Compared with the best-performing baseline model on each dataset, the MSE decreases by 4.8% and 6.6% on the two datasets respectively, which effectively improves the accuracy of multi-station residential load forecasting and the representation capability for complex variation patterns.

     

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