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基于煤质回归与分钟级监测的浙江煤电碳排放动态分析

Dynamic analysis of carbon emissions from coal-fired power units in Zhejiang based on coal quality regression and minute -resolution monitoring

  • 摘要: 针对浙江电网煤电机组在低碳调度中面临的碳排放动态特性不清晰问题,研究不同技术代际、容量等级机组的碳排放实时监测方法与分钟级动态特性。基于能量平衡和物质守恒原理,建立了一种通过实时热平衡反算入炉煤热值、进而规避燃料采样滞后的碳排放监测模型。选取浙江省7台覆盖亚临界、超临界、超超临界3个参数等级及300 ~1000 MW容量等级的机组,在2025年春夏秋冬4个典型日进行监测。结果表明:机组发电碳排放强度与负荷率呈显著负相关,分钟级变负荷过程中碳排放强度滞后负荷变化2~4min;高参数机组在中高负荷以上区间的碳效率优势明显,而低参数机组在低负荷下的碳排放强度增幅更大;机组碳排放强度呈“夏冬高、春秋低”的季节性特征,但高参数机组的碳效率优势在出力波动大的夏、冬季有所弱化。电网进行低碳调度或深度调峰时,应综合考虑机组技术等级、负荷区间与季节运行特性的协同影响,优化机组组合方式,以实现系统整体碳排放的最优控制。

     

    Abstract: The dynamic characteristics of carbon emissions from coal-fired power units in Zhejiang Power Grid, particularly under varying load and seasonal conditions, remain unclear, posing challenges for low-carbon dispatch. This study develops a real-time emission monitoring method and investigates the minute-resolution dynamic characteristics of units across different technological generations and capacity grades. Based on energy and mass balance principles, a real-time carbon emission monitoring model is established that circumvents the fuel sampling lag by back-calculating the as-fired coal heating value from the thermal balance. Seven units, covering subcritical, supercritical, and ultra-supercritical parameter grades with capacities ranging from 300 MW to 1000 MW, are monitored on four typical days representing spring, summer, autumn, and winter of 2025. The results show a significant negative correlation between power-generation carbon emission intensity and load rate. During minute-resolution load-ramping processes, the carbon emission intensity lags behind load changes by approximately 2–4 minutes. High-parameter units exhibit a clear carbon efficiency advantage at medium-to-high loads, whereas low-parameter units show a larger increase in emission intensity at low loads. A clear seasonal pattern is observed, with higher emission intensities in summer and winter and lower values in spring and autumn; however, the carbon efficiency advantage of high-parameter units is weakened in summer and winter due to frequent and large-amplitude load fluctuations. Therefore, when implementing low-carbon dispatch or deep peak shaving, grid operators should consider the synergistic effects of unit technical grade, load interval, and seasonal operating characteristics to optimize unit commitment and achieve overall carbon emission minimization.

     

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