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多源不确定性下分布式能源系统鲁棒优化调度方法综述

Review on robust optimization scheduling methods for distributed energy systems under multi-source uncertainties

  • 摘要: 随着分布式新能源、储能与多类型负荷快速渗透,分布式能源系统调度呈现多能流深度耦合、多时间尺度动态交织与多主体协同交互并存的复杂运行特征。多源不确定性跨多能载体和跨时段传播扰动降低系统安全裕度并加剧可行性压力,推动分布式能源系统调度从确定性成本优化演化为面向风险与可行性保障的鲁棒决策。首先,总结分布式能源系统调度建模框架,结合不确定扰动在多能转换链条与网络约束中的传导特征,系统分析主要不确定性来源及其跨能载、跨时段传播特征;其次,归纳场景集合、不确定集合以及分布模糊集合等建模路径,比较其对调度可行性与风险控制的影响差异,重点梳理鲁棒优化、多阶段自适应鲁棒优化与分布鲁棒优化在分布式能源系统调度中的模型构建、求解方法和适用场景,阐明非预期性、全场景可行性、保守性控制和样本外风险管理等关键问题及其在分布式能源系统的安全性、经济性与数据依赖性上的适用边界;最后,展望不确定环境下的分布式能源系统鲁棒调度的未来研究方向。

     

    Abstract: With the rapid penetration of distributed renewable generation, energy storage and heterogeneous loads, the scheduling of distributed energy systems (DESs) exhibits complex operational characteristics featured by deep coupling of multi-energy flows, multi-timescale dynamic coordination, and multi-agent interactions. Multi-source uncertainties propagate and disturb across energy carriers and time horizons, reducing system safety margins and increasing the difficulty of maintaining feasible system operation. As a result, DES scheduling is driven to evolve from deterministic cost-oriented optimization toward risk-aware and feasibility-guaranteed robust decision-making. Firstly, this paper summarizes the scheduling modeling framework for DESs. Combined with the propagation characteristics of uncertain disturbances in multi-energy conversion chains and network constraints, the main sources of uncertainties as well as their cross-carrier and cross-time-horizon propagation features are systematically analyzed. Secondly, modeling paradigms including scenario sets, uncertainty sets and distributional ambiguity sets are summarized, and their different impacts on scheduling feasibility and risk control are compared. Special emphasis is placed on the model formulation, solution methodologies and applicable scenarios of robust optimization, multi-stage adaptive robust optimization and distributionally robust optimization for DES scheduling. Key issues including non-anticipativity, full-scenario feasibility, conservativeness control and out-of-sample risk management are elaborated, together with their application boundaries concerning safety, economy and data dependence in DESs. Finally, future research directions for robust scheduling of DESs under uncertainties are discussed.

     

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