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基于检索增强概率降尺度的气象-风光出力联合场景生成方法

Joint scenario generation method for meteorology-wind-solar power output based on retrieval-augmented probabilistic downscaling

  • 摘要: 高比例新能源电力系统的运行规划高度依赖高时间分辨率气象数据与风光出力场景,而现有气候模型大多仅提供日尺度气象信息,难以直接支撑电力系统小时级运行分析。为此,提出一种基于检索增强概率降尺度(retrieval-augmented probabilistic downscaling,RAPD)的气象-风光出力联合场景生成方法。首先,基于秩和距离构建相似日检索机制,提取历史高分辨率气象基线序列;其次,构建基于Transformer的条件变分自编码器学习网络,实现气象波动残差的概率化生成;最后,建立气象变量至风光出力的物理映射模型,生成全年连续小时级风光出力场景。基于历史气象数据的验证表明,所提方法在温度和风速上的平均绝对误差较传统统计相似方法分别降低了30.17%和28.84%。进一步以气候模型日尺度数据为输入,降尺度生成对应小时级气象与风光出力场景,并验证降尺度结果与日尺度输入的一致性。结果表明,所提方法可有效实现时间降尺度与场景生成,为未来情景下新能源出力分析提供高时间分辨率场景基础。

     

    Abstract: The operation and planning of power systems with high penetrations of renewable energy highly depend on high-temporal-resolution meteorological data and wind-solar power output scenarios. However, most existing climate models only provide daily-scale meteorological information, which is insufficient to directly support the hourly-level operational analysis of power systems. Therefore, this paper proposes a joint scenario generation method for meteorology-wind-solar power outputs based on retrieval-augmented probabilistic downscaling (RAPD). First, a similar-day retrieval mechanism based on the rank-sum distance is constructed to extract historical high-resolution meteorological baseline sequences. Second, a Transformer-based conditional variational autoencoder (T-CVAE) learning network is built to realize the probabilistic generation of meteorological fluctuation residuals. Finally, a physical mapping model from meteorological variables to wind-solar power outputs is established to generate continuous hourly wind-solar power output scenarios for a whole year. Validations based on historical meteorological data demonstrate that the mean absolute error (MAE) values for temperature and wind speed are reduced by 30.17% and 28.84%, respectively, compared with the traditional statistical analog method. Furthermore, taking the daily-scale data from climate models as input, the corresponding hourly-level meteorology-wind-solar power output scenarios are generated through downscaling, and the consistency between the downscaled results and the daily-scale inputs is verified. The results indicate that the proposed method can effectively accomplish temporal downscaling and scenario generation, providing a high-temporal-resolution scenario foundation for renewable energy output analysis under future scenarios.

     

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