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基于双尺度时序卷积网络和残差Bootstrap方法的电流互感器测量误差区间预测

Interval prediction of current transformer measurement error based on DTCN and residual Bootstrap method

  • 摘要: 针对电流互感器比差序列受环境扰动、工况变化和随机噪声影响而呈现非平稳、多尺度特征,且点预测与区间刻画难以兼顾的问题,建立一种融合完全集合经验模态分解(complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition,CEEMD)、双尺度时序卷积网络(dual-scale temporal convolutional network,DTCN)和偏差校正残差自助法(bias-corrected residual Bootstrap,BCRB)的区间预测方法。首先采用CEEMD对原始比差序列进行分解与重构,削弱高频噪声和模态混叠;然后利用DTCN提取短时波动与长期漂移特征,实现比差点预测;最后基于BCRB构建不同置信水平下的预测区间。算例结果表明,在0.99置信水平下,所提方法具有较高区间覆盖率。

     

    Abstract: To address the problems that the ratio-error series of current-transformers, affected by environmental disturbance, operating condition variations and random noise, exhibit nonstationary and multi-scale characteristics, and it is difficult to balance point prediction and interval estimation, this paper proposes an interval forecasting method integrating complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD), dual-scale temporal convolutional network (DTCN) and bias-corrected residual bootstrap (BCRB). Firstly, The CEEMD is adopted to decompose and reconstruct the original ratio-error series to suppress high-frequency noise and mode mixing. Secondly, the DTCN is used to extract short-term fluctuation and long-term drift features to realize point prediction of ratio errors. Finally, prediction intervals under different confidence levels are constructed based on the residual bootstrap method. Case studies show that the proposed method achieves a high interval coverage probability at the confidence level of 0.99.

     

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