Abstract: Resolving the dilemma of regional development imbalance in provincial-level power transition is the key to consolidating the foundation of new power system construction and ensuring the steady implementation of the "dual-carbon" goals. Taking China's 30 provincial-level administrative regions as research samples, this paper constructs an evaluation system from four dimensions: clean low-carbon transition, safety and reliability, efficient energy utilization, and economic coordination, to measure the power transition index (PTI). By integrating time-series analysis, the Markov-chain model and the two-way fixed-effect model, the paper reveals the evolutionary patterns of power transition and analyzes the heterogeneous characteristics of driving factors from regional and coal-dependence perspectives. The results indicate that the national PTI has achieved a cumulative growth of 32.5%, exhibiting a three-stage nonlinear evolutionary pattern. Regional echelon differentiation is prominent, and provincial power transition is characterized by hierarchical path dependence. The probability of self-sustainment for high-level provincial-level administrative regions reaches 95.3%, while low-level ones tend to fall into development lock-in. Policy intensity, technological innovation, and environmental regulation can all positively drive power transition, with technological innovation acting as the core and stable driving factor, whose driving effects feature dual heterogeneity across regions and coal-dependent levels. Differentiated and targeted policy-making, elimination of low-level lock-in, and strengthened collaborative driving of policies and technologies are recommended to facilitate coordinated and high-quality development of national power transition.