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融合数据解耦重构与多分支PatchMixer的电动汽车负荷预测模型

Electric vehicle load forecasting model integrating data decoupling reconstruction and multi-branch PatchMixer

  • 摘要: 针对电动汽车充电负荷具有强非线性、高波动性以及多特征耦合的预测难题,提出一种融合数据解耦重构与多分支PatchMixer的多变量时序负荷预测框架。首先,采用自适应噪声完备集合经验模态分解算法结合排列熵与k-means聚类,对原始负荷序列进行降维重组;其次,引入三角函数编码消除时间周期边界的距离误差,并结合气象数据等构建多维特征集;随后,利用轻梯度提升机对特征重要性进行评估与筛选,剔除冗余特征;最后,构建基于纯多层感知机网络的PatchMixer预测模型,针对不同频段设计并行的深度混合分支,高效捕捉不同频率的变化趋势。结果表明,本预测框架在多个预测指标上均显著优于主流基线模型,证明了该预测框架的优越性。

     

    Abstract: To address the forecasting challenges of electric vehicle charging loads characterized by strong nonlinearity, high volatility, and multi-feature coupling, this study proposes a multivariate time-series load forecasting framework integrating data decoupling reconstruction and multi-branch PatchMixer. Firstly, the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) algorithm combined with permutation entropy and k-means clustering is employed to realize dimensionality reduction and reorganization of the original load series. Secondly, trigonometric encoding is introduced to eliminate boundary distance errors of temporal cycles, and a multidimensional feature set is constructed by incorporating meteorological data and other information. Subsequently, light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) is utilized to evaluate feature importance and screen out redundant features. Finally, a PatchMixer forecasting model based on pure multi-layer perceptron network is constructed. Parallel deep mixing branches are designed for different frequency bands to efficiently capture variation trends of different frequencies. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed forecasting framework significantly outperforms mainstream baseline models in multiple forecasting metrics, thereby validating its superiority.

     

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