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基于孤立森林算法的大型电网企业投资效率模型构建与实证研究

Construction and empirical study on investment efficiency model for large-scale power grid enterprises based on isolation forest algorithm

  • 摘要: 为解决传统主观打分方法难以在高维、无先验标签的多源数据中精准聚焦异常与管理隐患的难题,提出了一套基于无监督机器学习算法的电网投资效率异常识别与穿透归因方法。首先,建立涵盖事前决策、过程管控、技术效益、经济效益及社会效益等维度的多专业投资效率评价指标体系,实现对“投前-投中-投后”全业务环节的量化表征。其次,基于孤立森林(isolation forest,iForest)算法构建投资效率异常检测模型,利用随机切分路径的期望长度归一化计算异常评分,结合算法内生特征权重与绝对中位差(median absolute deviation,MAD)的稳健偏离度,建立关键异常指标贡献度的量化推演公式。最后,以真实投资评价数据为场景,进行实证研究与穿透核查。结果表明,该模型能在无需预设阈值的情况下,精准锁定异常管理单元并追溯深层业务隐患,有效弥补了传统评价体系的不足,为电网投资全生命周期闭环管理提供研究支撑。

     

    Abstract: To address the challenge that traditional subjective scoring methods struggle to accurately identify anomalies and management risks in high-dimensional, unlabeled multi-source data, this paper proposes an unsupervised machine learning-based approach for anomaly detection and look-through attribution of power grid investment efficiency. Firstly, a multi-disciplinary investment efficiency evaluation index system covering pre-investment decision-making, in-process control, technical benefits, economic benefits and social benefits, is established to achieve quantitative characterization of the entire business process including pre-investment, mid-investment, and post-investment stages. Secondly, an investment efficiency anomaly detection model is constructed based on the isolation forest (iForest) algorithm. The model normalizes and calculates anomaly scores via the expected length of random splitting paths, and combines the algorithm's intrinsic feature weights with the robust deviation of median absolute deviation (MAD) to establish a quantitative derivation formula for the contribution degree of key anomalous indicators. Finally, empirical research and drill-down verification are conducted using real investment evaluation datasets. The results demonstrate that the proposed model can accurately pinpoint anomalous management units and trace underlying business risks without preset thresholds, effectively remedying the defects of traditional evaluation systems and providing solid support for closed-loop life-cycle management of power grid investment.

     

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