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考虑风光出力互补特性的风光集群日前发电功率预测

Day-ahead generation power forecasting for wind-photovoltaic clusters considering complementary generation characteristics

  • 摘要: 随着风光电站的规模化发展,开展准确的区域风光电站集群功率预测对区域电力系统的稳定性和可靠性至关重要。因此,提出了一种考虑出力互补特性的风光集群发电功率预测方法。首先构建了多维度风光互补特性量化评价指标体系,系统评估任意两风光电站之间的出力互补性;其次基于量化的不同发电形式电站出力互补性与相同发电形式电站出力相关性,构建基于图卷积网络(graph convolutional network,GCN)的风光集群日前功率预测模型;最后引入多任务学习机制联合优化不同季节场景的预测任务。仿真结果表明,电站风光出力互补特性和多任务学习机制的引入,有效提高了风光电站集群功率预测的准确性。

     

    Abstract: With the large-scale development of wind and photovoltaic (PV) power stations, accurate power forecasting for regional wind-PV clusters is crucial for the stability and reliability of regional power systems. Therefore, this paper proposes a power forecasting method for wind-PV clusters considering output complementarity. Firstly, a multi-dimensional indicator system is established to quantify wind-PV complementarity, so as to systematically assess the output complementarity between any two wind and PV power stations. Secondly, based on the quantified output complementarity between plants of different generation types and the output correlation between plants of the same generation type, a graph convolutional network (GCN) based day-ahead power forecasting model is constructed for wind-PV clusters. Finally, a multi-task learning mechanism is introduced to jointly optimize forecasting tasks for different seasonal scenarios. Simulation results demonstrate that the integration of wind-PV complementarity and multi-task learning mechanism effectively improves the accuracy of power forecasting for wind-PV clusters.

     

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