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基于多尺度分解和ICOA-KConvLSTM的短期电力负荷预测

Short-term power load forecasting based on multi-scale decomposition and ICOA-KConvLSTM

  • 摘要: 精准的短期电力负荷预测是电力系统稳定运行和经济调度的核心任务。为了提高电力负荷预测的准确性,提出一种结合多尺度分解、改进小龙虾优化算法(improve crayfish optimization algorithm,ICOA)和改进卷积长短期记忆网络(convolutional long short-term memory,ConvLSTM)的组合预测模型。首先,结合自适应噪声完备集合经验模态分解和变分模态分解算法的优点对负荷数据进行多尺度分解,降低数据的复杂程度。然后,通过两种改进策略对小龙虾优化算法进行改进,避免算法陷入局部最优。最后,通过引入柯尔莫哥洛夫-阿诺德网络(kolmogorov-arnold network,KAN)改进ConvLSTM,提高模型的特征提取能力和非线性建模能力。实验结果表明,所提出的模型在预测精度上均优于当前主流模型,为电力系统调度提供可靠的决策支持。

     

    Abstract: Accurate short-term power load forecasting is a core task for the stable operation and economic dispatch of power systems. To improve the accuracy of power load forecasting, this paper proposes a hybrid forecasting model that integrates multi-scale decomposition, improved crayfish optimization algorithm, and improved convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM). Firstly, the advantages of the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise and the variational mode decomposition algorithm are combined to decompose the load data at multiple scales, thereby reducing the data complexity. Then, the crayfish optimization algorithm is improved through two improvement strategies to prevent the algorithm from falling into local optima. Finally, the Kolmogorov-Arnold networks (KAN) are introduced to enhance the ConvLSTM, improving the model's feature extraction capability and nonlinear modeling performance. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms current mainstream models in terms of forecasting accuracy, providing reliable decision support for power system dispatch.

     

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