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计及运行风险的区域电网水火风光长期互补调度方法

Long-term complementary dispatch for regional power grids with hydro-thermal-wind-solar resources considering operation risks

  • 摘要: 大规模新能源并网导致区域电网供需平衡难度加剧,现有调度模式难以协调跨省调节电源,省级调节资源分配不均进一步放大保供和消纳风险,亟须建立风险驱动的协同优化框架。构建涵盖保供、消纳、调节难度的多维度区域电网运行风险评价指标体系,提出计及运行风险的区域电网发电分配两阶段优化方法。阶段一以全网保供与消纳风险最小为目标优化网调电源发电计划,阶段二基于调节难度指标实现省间电力差异化分配;采用二阶锥松弛技术处理非线性约束实现模型高效求解。依托华东电网实际数据仿真表明,阶段一发电计划面对极端场景时保供风险减少286 GW·h(降幅17%),消纳风险降低573 GW·h(降幅35%),阶段二分配计划下,省调电源在极端场景的上调风险平均降低了65.7%,下调风险降低了66.5%。

     

    Abstract: Large-scale new energy grid integration has intensified the supply-demand balancing difficulty of regional power grids. Existing dispatching modes fail to coordinate inter-provincial regulating power sources, and the uneven allocation of provincial regulating resources further amplifies the risks of power supply guarantee and new energy consumption, thus necessitating the establishment of a risk-driven collaborative optimization framework. A multi-dimensional operation risk evaluation index system covering power supply guarantee, new energy consumption and regulation difficulty is constructed, and a two-stage generation allocation optimization method for regional power grids considering operation risks is proposed. Stage 1 optimizes the generation schedule of grid-dispatched power sources to minimize the overall grid risks of power supply guarantee and new energy consumption. Stage 2 achieves differentiated inter-provincial power allocation based on the regulation difficulty index. The second-order cone relaxation technique is employed to address nonlinear constraints for efficient model solving. Simulations with actual data from the East China Power Grid show that, under extreme scenarios, Stage 1 reduces the power supply guarantee risk by 286 GW·h (17% drop) and the new energy consumption risk by 573 GW·h (35% drop). Stage 2 cuts the average upward adjustment risk of provincial-dispatched power sources by 65.7% and the downward adjustment risk by 66.5% under extreme scenarios.

     

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