关键词: 能源消费基数增加, 非化石能源占比15%目标, 方案分析, 技术经济比较

Abstract: Recently, the statistic data of China’s total energy consumption for 2014 were amended and adjusted. The proportion target of non-fossil energy is analyzed, which is aimed to increase to 15% in 2020 according to the energy consumption statistics. The research result shows that the adjustment of the energy consumption base may cause the total expected energy consumption to exceed 4.8 billion tons in 2020, which will make it difficult to realize the target of 15%. However, there are several feasible solutions. One solution is to increase the energy-saving ability for further decreasing the total energy consumption; The second solution is to expand the development of wind power, solar power, and construct trans-region transmission lines for transmitting new energy to improve the consumption ability. It is more effective to arrange the peak-load power stations in the power reception area to coordinate the new energy consumption.

Key words: increase of the energy consumption base, non-fossil energy proportion target of 15%, scheme analysis, technological and economic comparison