电网碳减排贡献定量测算方法

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202410052

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

电网是连接电力生产和消费的重要平台，在全社会碳减排中发挥着重要的作用，但目前缺乏电网助力并网主体碳减排贡献的定量研究。借鉴Shapley值法的贡献分配思路，兼顾简明性和合理性，提出一种电网对并网主体碳减排贡献量测算方法。电网碳减排贡献比例由电网对减排量的边际作用决定，并可以通过简化公式计算，采用实测数据或者理论计算，论证有/无电网2种情况下并网主体碳减排量，依据2种情况下碳减排量相对大小，可以对电网碳减排贡献进行分类讨论，有/无电网不影响并网主体碳减排量时，电网的碳减排贡献为零；无电网则并网主体无法有效碳减排时，电网的碳减排贡献最大。该方法为衡量电网服务社会碳减排贡献提供了新思路和视角，为量化电网服务社会低碳转型的贡献提供了理论依据。

关键词: 电网碳减排, 贡献分配, 定量测算, Shapley值

Abstract:

The power grid serves as an important platform connecting electricity production and consumption, playing a crucial role in carbon emission reduction across society. However, currently, there is a lack of quantitative research on the power grid's contribution to facilitating carbon emission reductions from grid-connected entities. Based on the contribution allocation concept of the Shapley value method and considering both simplicity and rationality, this paper proposes a method for quantifying the power grid's contribution to the carbon emission reduction of grid-connected entities. The proportion of the power grid's contribution to the carbon emission reduction is determined by the marginal effect of the power grid on the emission reduction and can be calculated through a simplified formula. Through empirical data or theoretical calculation, this study demonstrates the carbon emission reduction of grid-connected entities with and without the power grid, and based on the relative magnitude of emission reduction under these two scenarios, the power grid's contribution to carbon reduction can be categorically discussed. When the presence or absence of the power grid does not affect the carbon emission reduction of grid-connected entities, the power grid's contribution to carbon emission reduction is zero; when the absence of the power grid renders grid-connected entity unable to achieve effective carbon emission reduction, the power grid's contribution is maximized. This method provides a novel approach and perspective for evaluating the power grid's contribution to social carbon emission reduction, offering a theoretical basis for quantifying the power grid's contribution to the low-carbon transition of society.

Key words: carbon reduction in power grid, contribution allocation, quantitative calculation, Shapley value

张幸, 柴玉凤, 韩新阳, 王旭斌, 尹建光, 张新圣. 电网碳减排贡献定量测算方法[J]. 中国电力, 2025, 58(9): 175-182.

ZHANG Xing, CHAI Yufeng, HAN Xinyang, WANG Xubin, YIN Jianguang, ZHANG Xinsheng. A Quantitative Calculation Method for Carbon Emission Reduction Contribution of Power Grid[J]. Electric Power, 2025, 58(9): 175-182.

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链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202410052

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2025/V58/I9/175

图/表 9

表 1 联盟主体组合情形

Table 1 Combination of alliance entities

联盟编号	主体S	情况描述	碳减排量v(S)
1	{其他主体}	只建设其他主体，不改造建设电网	α
2	{电网}	只改造建设电网，不建设其他主体	β
3	{其他主体，电网}	建设其他主体，也改造建设电网	γ

表 2 计算ω网相关参数

Table 2 The related parameters ofωgrid

参数	S={电网}	S={其他主体，电网}
v(S)	β	γ
v(S\{i})	0	α
S_i	1	2
n	2	2
$(S_i-1)!(n-S_i)!/n! $	0.5	0.5
ω_网	$0.5(\beta +(\gamma-\alpha)) $

表 3 计算ω主体相关参数

Table 3 The related parameters ofωentity

参数	S={电网}	S={其他主体，电网}
v(S)	α	γ
v(S\{i})	0	β
S_i	1	2
n	2	2
$(S_i-1)!(n-S_i)!/n! $	0.5	0.5
ω_主体	$0.5(\alpha +(\gamma-\beta)) $

表 4 碳减排场景与ω网和ω主体取值范围

Table 4 Carbon emission reduction scenarios and the range of ωgrid andωentity

场景	α、γ	ω_网	ω_主体
Ⅰ	γ＜α	不适用
Ⅱ	γ=α	0	γ
Ⅲ	γ＞α且α=0	0.5γ	0.5γ
Ⅳ	γ＞α且α≠0	(0, 0.5γ)	(0.5γ, γ)

图 1 电网碳减排贡献量测算流程

Fig.1 The process for quantifying power grid's contribution to carbon emission reduction

图 2 某海上风电项目边界

Fig.2 The boundary of an offshore wind power project

图 3 微电网案例示意

Fig.3 Schematic of a microgrid

图 4 微电网并网和离网模式下单日发/用电量

Fig.4 The daily power generation and power load of a microgrid under on-grid and off-grid modes

表 5 微电网碳减排相关数据

Table 5 The carbon reduction-related data of microgrids 单位：tCO2

模式	E_mg	P_mg	P_grid
并网	0.17	3.45	3.62
离网	0.12	3.27	3.39

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