时滞效应视角下中国电力绿色低碳转型效率评估——基于考虑产出滞后的三阶段超效率SBM-Malmquist模型

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202508025

中国电力 ›› 2026, Vol. 59 ›› Issue (4): 114-126.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202508025

时滞效应视角下中国电力绿色低碳转型效率评估——基于考虑产出滞后的三阶段超效率SBM-Malmquist模型

李露露¹(), 何姣²^,³()

1. 湖南农业大学商学院，湖南长沙　410128
2. 湖南理工大学经济与管理学院，湖南岳阳　414006
3. 长沙理工大学电价研究中心，湖南长沙　410114

收稿日期:2025-08-12 发布日期:2026-04-20 出版日期:2026-04-28
作者简介:
李露露（1999），女，博士研究生，从事资源环境经济、电力经济研究，E-mail：2511975485@qq.com
何姣（1986），男，通信作者，博士，副教授，从事电力经济研究，E-mail：1057320378@qq.com
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金青年资助项目（22CJY064）；湖南省社会科学成果评审委员会资助项目（XSP22YBZ071）。

Assessment of China's power sector green and low-carbon transformation efficiency from the perspective of time lag effect: based on a three-stage super-efficiency SBM-Malmquist model considering output lag

LI Lulu¹(), HE Jiao²^,³()

1. Business School, Hunan Agricultural University, Changsha 410128, China
2. School of Economics and Management, Hunan Institute of Science and Technology, Yueyang 414006, China
3. Electricity Price Research Center, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha 410114, China

Received:2025-08-12 Online:2026-04-20 Published:2026-04-28
Supported by:
This work is supported by the Youth Program of the National Social Science Foundation of China (No.22CJY064) and the Social Science Achievement Review Committee Program of Hunan Province (No.XSP22YBZ071).

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

电力绿色低碳转型是助力中国式现代化发展的重要支撑。以2015—2023年中国30个省级行政区为研究样本，采用考虑产出滞后的三阶段超效率数据包络分析法（slacks-based measure，SBM）-Malmquist指数模型测度电力绿色低碳转型效率。研究发现，基于考虑时滞效应的电力产出修正分析测算，可再生能源电力消纳量、电能占终端能源消费比重滞后期分别为1期和3期。能源价格机制完善和城镇化水平提升对电力绿色低碳转型发挥了显著的正向驱动作用，其积极效果远大于经济发展和产业结构所带来的负向抑制效应。在外部环境影响下，电力绿色低碳转型综合效率均值存在高估现象，调整后的真实效率水平呈现“西部＞东部＞中部”的空间分布特征，且省际差异显著。电力绿色低碳转型全要素生产率呈“先升后降”的波动趋势，技术进步的拉动作用缓解了技术效率偏低带来的负面制约。

关键词: 绿色低碳转型, 时滞效应, 三阶段超效率SBM, Malmquist指数

Abstract:

The green and low-carbon transformation of China's power sector serves as a crucial underpinning for advancing Chinese modernization. Taking 30 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government of China from 2015 to 2023 as the research sample, this paper employs a three-stage super-efficiency SBM-Malmquist index model that accounts for output lags to measure the efficiency of the green and low-carbon transformation of the power sector. The findings reveal that, based on the revised analysis of power output considering the time lag effect, the lag periods of renewable energy power consumption and the proportion of electricity in terminal energy consumption are 1 period and 3 periods respectively. Energy pricing mechanism refinement and urbanization progression have exerted a significant positive driving effect on the green and low-carbon transformation of the electric power sector, with their beneficial impacts substantially outweighing the negative inhibitory effects stemming from economic development stages and industrial structure. The external factors leads to an overestimation of the average comprehensive efficiency of green and low-carbon transformation in the power sector. Additionally, the recalibrated actual efficiency level demonstrates a spatial distribution pattern of West ＞ East ＞ Central, with notable inter-provincial differences. The total factor productivity (TFP) of the power sector's green and low-carbon transformation exhibits a fluctuating trend, and the pulling effect of technological advancements has mitigated the negative constraints caused by low technical efficiency.

Key words: green and low-carbon transformation, time lag effect, three-stage super-efficiency SBM, Malmquist index

李露露, 何姣. 时滞效应视角下中国电力绿色低碳转型效率评估——基于考虑产出滞后的三阶段超效率SBM-Malmquist模型[J]. 中国电力, 2026, 59(4): 114-126.

LI Lulu, HE Jiao. Assessment of China's power sector green and low-carbon transformation efficiency from the perspective of time lag effect: based on a three-stage super-efficiency SBM-Malmquist model considering output lag[J]. Electric Power, 2026, 59(4): 114-126.

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图/表 10

参考文献 35

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指标类型		具体指标	数据来源
投入变量	电力投资	电源与电网投资额	《中国电力工业统计资料汇编》《中国电力统计年鉴》
	绿色投入	清洁能源装机容量；	《中国电力统计年鉴》
		35 kV及以上输电线路回路长度；
		35 kV及以上变压器容量
	能源投入	发电消耗标煤量	《中国电力工业统计资料汇编》《中国电力统计年鉴》
	人员投入	电力、热力生产和供应行业平均用工人数	《中国工业统计年鉴》《中国经济普查年鉴》
产出变量	降碳	火力发电与电网供电碳减排量之和；	《中国电力统计年鉴》
	降碳	单位发电量碳排放强度降低值	EDGAR数据库、《中国电力统计年鉴》
	减污	SO₂、NO_x等污染物减排量	《中国电力工业统计资料汇编》《中国环境统计年鉴》
	扩绿	清洁能源发电量；	《中国电力工业统计资料汇编》《中国能源统计年鉴》
	扩绿	可再生能源电力消纳量	《全国可再生能源电力发展监测评价报告》
	增长	电能占终端能源消费比重	《中国能源统计年鉴》
环境因素	经济发展水平	GDP	《中国统计年鉴》
	产业结构	第二产业占比
	能源价格	原材料、燃料和动力购进价格指数
	城镇化水平	城镇化率

指标类型		具体指标	数据来源
投入变量	电力投资	电源与电网投资额	《中国电力工业统计资料汇编》《中国电力统计年鉴》
	绿色投入	清洁能源装机容量；	《中国电力统计年鉴》
		35 kV及以上输电线路回路长度；
		35 kV及以上变压器容量
	能源投入	发电消耗标煤量	《中国电力工业统计资料汇编》《中国电力统计年鉴》
	人员投入	电力、热力生产和供应行业平均用工人数	《中国工业统计年鉴》《中国经济普查年鉴》
产出变量	降碳	火力发电与电网供电碳减排量之和；	《中国电力统计年鉴》
	降碳	单位发电量碳排放强度降低值	EDGAR数据库、《中国电力统计年鉴》
	减污	SO₂、NO_x等污染物减排量	《中国电力工业统计资料汇编》《中国环境统计年鉴》
	扩绿	清洁能源发电量；	《中国电力工业统计资料汇编》《中国能源统计年鉴》
	扩绿	可再生能源电力消纳量	《全国可再生能源电力发展监测评价报告》
	增长	电能占终端能源消费比重	《中国能源统计年鉴》
环境因素	经济发展水平	GDP	《中国统计年鉴》
	产业结构	第二产业占比
	能源价格	原材料、燃料和动力购进价格指数
	城镇化水平	城镇化率

年份	lag 0	lag 1	lag 2	lag 3	lag 4	lag 5
2015年	0.817	0.829	0.847	0.850	0.844	0.855
2016年	0.845	0.850	0.851	0.851	0.859	0.871
2017年	0.799	0.808	0.803	0.827	0.864	0.889
2018年	0.804	0.804	0.825	0.867	0.888	0.888
2019年	0.881	0.876	0.899	0.936	0.936
2020年	0.856	0.895	0.931	0.931
2021年	0.904	0.941	0.941
2022年	0.848	0.848
2023年	0.837

年份	lag 0	lag 1	lag 2	lag 3	lag 4	lag 5
2015年	0.817	0.829	0.847	0.850	0.844	0.855
2016年	0.845	0.850	0.851	0.851	0.859	0.871
2017年	0.799	0.808	0.803	0.827	0.864	0.889
2018年	0.804	0.804	0.825	0.867	0.888	0.888
2019年	0.881	0.876	0.899	0.936	0.936
2020年	0.856	0.895	0.931	0.931
2021年	0.904	0.941	0.941
2022年	0.848	0.848
2023年	0.837

配对组	滞后期之差	均值	双侧检验
Pair 1	lag 0-lag 1	–0.012	0.081^*
Pair 2	lag 0-lag 2	–0.027	0.024^**
Pair 3	lag 0-lag 3	–0.043	0.009^***
Pair 4	lag 0-lag 4	–0.049	0.018^**
Pair 5	lag 0-lag 5	–0.060	0.034^**

时滞效应视角下中国电力绿色低碳转型效率评估——基于考虑产出滞后的三阶段超效率SBM-Malmquist模型

Assessment of China's power sector green and low-carbon transformation efficiency from the perspective of time lag effect: based on a three-stage super-efficiency SBM-Malmquist model considering output lag

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