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“碳达峰、碳中和”目标下的电力系统成本及价格水平预测

Prediction of Power System Cost and Price Level Under the Goal of “Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutralization”

  • 摘要: 电力系统在碳达峰碳中和目标实现过程中,电源结构、电网形态等将发生重大变化,系统成本也将随之改变。在综合考虑电源结构、发电造价、燃料成本、电网投资等因素变化基础上,采用经营期法和“成本+收益”方法,开展中远期电力系统成本及价格水平预测。研究结果表明,未来电力系统各环节成本均呈上升趋势,其中电源侧成本在2040年前快速增长、之后相对稳定,而电网侧成本保持小幅上涨趋势。该研究可为进一步完善电价机制和市场化制度、加强电力系统成本疏导和公平分担提供参考依据。

     

    Abstract: In the process of achieving the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization in the power system, the power supply structure and grid form will change significantly, and the system cost will also change accordingly. On the basis of comprehensive consideration of the changes in power supply structure, power generation cost, fuel cost, grid investment and other factors, this paper adopts the business period method and the “cost + income” model to forecast the cost and price level of power system in the mid to long-term. The research results show that the cost of each link of the power system will increase in the future, among which the cost of the power supply side will increase rapidly before 2040 and tends to be relatively stable afterwards, while the cost of the power grid side will increase slightly. This study can provide a reference for further improving the electricity price mechanism and marketization system, as well as strengthening the power system cost facilitation and fair sharing.

     

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