“碳达峰、碳中和”目标下的电力系统成本及价格水平预测

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202208069

中国电力 ›› 2023, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (1): 9-16.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202208069

• 电价市场化改革与价格监管 • 上一篇下一篇

“碳达峰、碳中和”目标下的电力系统成本及价格水平预测

孙启星, 张超, 李成仁, 尤培培, 高效, 赵茜, 许钊, 刘思佳, 李炎林

国网能源研究院有限公司，北京 102209

收稿日期:2022-08-17 修回日期:2022-12-04 出版日期:2023-01-28 发布日期:2023-01-14
作者简介:孙启星(1993-),男,博士,高级工程师,从事中国电力改革的电力价格研究,E-mail:sunqixing@sgeri.sgcc.com.cn;张超(1987-),男,通信作者,博士,高级经济师,从事电价理论与方法、电力市场改革价格规则等研究,E-mail:zhangchao@sgeri.sgcc.com.cn
基金资助:
国家电网有限公司科技项目（SGHEXT00FZJS2100017）

Prediction of Power System Cost and Price Level Under the Goal of “Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutralization”

SUN Qixing, ZHANG Chao, LI Chengren, YOU Peipei, GAO Xiao, ZHAO Qian, XU Zhao, LIU Sijia, LI Yanlin

State Grid Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 102209, China

Received:2022-08-17 Revised:2022-12-04 Online:2023-01-28 Published:2023-01-14
Supported by:
This work is supported by Science and Technology Project of SGCC (No.SGHEXT00FZJS2100017)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 电力系统在碳达峰碳中和目标实现过程中，电源结构、电网形态等将发生重大变化，系统成本也将随之改变。在综合考虑电源结构、发电造价、燃料成本、电网投资等因素变化基础上，采用经营期法和“成本+收益”方法，开展中远期电力系统成本及价格水平预测。研究结果表明，未来电力系统各环节成本均呈上升趋势，其中电源侧成本在2040年前快速增长、之后相对稳定，而电网侧成本保持小幅上涨趋势。该研究可为进一步完善电价机制和市场化制度、加强电力系统成本疏导和公平分担提供参考依据。

关键词: 电源成本预测, 电网成本预测, 终端用户成本测算, 碳达峰, 碳中和

Abstract: In the process of achieving the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization in the power system, the power supply structure and grid form will change significantly, and the system cost will also change accordingly. On the basis of comprehensive consideration of the changes in power supply structure, power generation cost, fuel cost, grid investment and other factors, this paper adopts the business period method and the “cost + income” model to forecast the cost and price level of power system in the mid to long-term. The research results show that the cost of each link of the power system will increase in the future, among which the cost of the power supply side will increase rapidly before 2040 and tends to be relatively stable afterwards, while the cost of the power grid side will increase slightly. This study can provide a reference for further improving the electricity price mechanism and marketization system, as well as strengthening the power system cost facilitation and fair sharing.

Key words: power cost forecast, power grid cost forecast, end user cost calculation, carbon peak, carbon neutralization

孙启星, 张超, 李成仁, 尤培培, 高效, 赵茜, 许钊, 刘思佳, 李炎林. “碳达峰、碳中和”目标下的电力系统成本及价格水平预测[J]. 中国电力, 2023, 56(1): 9-16.

SUN Qixing, ZHANG Chao, LI Chengren, YOU Peipei, GAO Xiao, ZHAO Qian, XU Zhao, LIU Sijia, LI Yanlin. Prediction of Power System Cost and Price Level Under the Goal of “Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutralization”[J]. Electric Power, 2023, 56(1): 9-16.

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“碳达峰、碳中和”目标下的电力系统成本及价格水平预测

Prediction of Power System Cost and Price Level Under the Goal of “Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutralization”

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“碳达峰、碳中和”目标下的电力系统成本及价格水平预测

Prediction of Power System Cost and Price Level Under the Goal of “Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutralization”

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