基于分层马尔可夫的可修复稳定控制系统可靠性分析

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201805154

中国电力 ›› 2020, Vol. 53 ›› Issue (3): 101-109.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201805154

基于分层马尔可夫的可修复稳定控制系统可靠性分析

郄朝辉, 李威, 崔晓丹, 刘福锁

南瑞集团(国网电力科学研究院)有限公司, 江苏南京 210003

收稿日期:2018-05-21 修回日期:2019-07-08 发布日期:2020-03-10
通讯作者: 郄朝辉(1985-),男,通信作者,硕士,高级工程师,从事电力系统安全稳定分析,备用电源自投、低频低压减载、故障解列等安全自动控制装置开发,E-mail:qiezhaohui@sgepri.sgcc.com.cn
基金资助:
国家电网公司科技项目（系统保护控制系统级实验验证基础能力建设相关技术研究，SGSDDK00KJJS1700315）。

Reliability Analysis of Repairable Stability Control System Based on Hierarchical Markov

QIE Zhaohui, LI Wei, CUI Xiaodan, LIU Fusuo

NARI Group Corporation/State Grid Electric Power Research Institute, Nanjing 210003, China

Received:2018-05-21 Revised:2019-07-08 Published:2020-03-10
Supported by:
This work is supported by Science and Technology Project of SGCC (Research on Technology of Basic Capacity Building for Power System Protection and Control System Level Experiments, No.SGSDDK00KJJS1700315)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目前稳定控制系统（简称稳控系统）的可靠性建模分析尚属空白。为健全和完善稳控系统的设计、架构和运维，建立稳控系统的可靠性分析模型十分必要。通过功能结构分析，稳控系统具备多串联系统冗余配置和多系统表决的结构特点。稳控系统结构复杂、装置数目多，因此马尔可夫建模方法状态空间数量较大，无法直接建模计算求解。结合稳控系统结构特点，通过分层马尔可夫的概率映射方法，大大降低了状态空间数量和计算量，实现了稳控系统可靠性的分析计算。根据稳控系统的可靠性建模计算方法，对某典型稳控系统建立了详细的状态模型，该模型考虑了稳控系统装置的自检、检修、隐形故障和冗余配置等因素。根据稳控系统的可靠性分析，设备检修安排不合理可能降低系统可靠性，突破了检修提高系统可靠性的认知。

关键词: 稳控系统, 可靠性分析, 分层马尔可夫, 可修系统, 隐形故障

Abstract: The reliability modeling analysis of the stability control system is still vacant. It is therefore of great significance to establish a reliability analysis model of the stability control system so as to perfect and improve the stability control system's design, architecture and operation. As an analysis of the function structure shows, the stability control system are structurally characterized with the redundant configuration of multi-series system and multi-system voting. The stability control system is complex in structure and large in the number of devices, so the Markov modeling is large in state-space number, which makes it impossible to realize the direct modeling solution. Based on the structural characteristics of the stability control system, the hierarchical Markov probability mapping method is proposed to reduce the number of state-space and the amount of computation, which makes it possible to realize the reliability analysis and calculation of the stability control system. The reliability modeling method is used to establish a detailed state model for a typical stability control system, which considers the factors of self-checking, overhauling, hidden faults and redundant configuration of the stability control system. The reliability analysis shows that unreasonable arrangement of equipment overhauling may reduce system reliability, which breaks the common knowledge that overhauling can improve the system reliability.

Key words: stability control system, reliability analysis, hierarchical Markov, repairable system, hidden fault

郄朝辉, 李威, 崔晓丹, 刘福锁. 基于分层马尔可夫的可修复稳定控制系统可靠性分析[J]. 中国电力, 2020, 53(3): 101-109.

QIE Zhaohui, LI Wei, CUI Xiaodan, LIU Fusuo. Reliability Analysis of Repairable Stability Control System Based on Hierarchical Markov[J]. Electric Power, 2020, 53(3): 101-109.

导出引用管理器 EndNote|Ris|BibTeX

链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201805154

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2020/V53/I3/101

参考文献

[1] 李明节. 大规模特高压交直流混联电网特性分析与运行控制[J]. 电网技术, 2016, 40(4): 985–991
LI Mingjie. Characteristic analysis and operational control of large-scale hybrid UHV AC/DC power grids[J]. Power System Technology, 2016, 40(4): 985–991
[2] 郑超, 马世英, 申旭辉, 等. 强直弱交的定义、内涵与形式及其应对措施[J]. 电网技术, 2017, 41(8): 2491–2498
ZHENG Chao, MA Shiying, SHEN Xuhui, et al. Definition, connotation and form of strong HVDC and weak AC and countermeasures for stable operation of hybrid power grid[J]. Power System Technology, 2017, 41(8): 2491–2498
[3] 张桦, 魏本刚, 李可军, 等. 基于变压器马尔可夫状态评估模型和熵权模糊评价方法的风险评估技术研究[J]. 电力系统保护与控制, 2016, 44(5): 134–140
ZHANG Hua, WEI Bengang, LI Kejun, et al. Research on risk assessment technology based on Markov state evaluation model for power transformer and entropy-weighted fuzzy comprehensive evaluation[J]. Power System Protection and Control, 2016, 44(5): 134–140
[4] 李光珍, 刘文颖. 基于LSSVM和马尔可夫链的母线负荷短期预测[J]. 电力系统保护与控制, 2010, 38(11): 55–59, 66
LI Guangzhen, LIU Wenying. Bus load short-term forecast based on LSSVM and Markov chain[J]. Power System Protection and Control, 2010, 38(11): 55–59, 66
[5] 石文辉, 别朝红, 王锡凡. 大型电力系统可靠性评估中的马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛方法[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2008, 28(4): 9–15
SHI Wenhui, BIE Zhaohong, WANG Xifan. Applications of Markov chain monte carlo in large-scale system reliability evaluation[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2008, 28(4): 9–15
[6] 程林, 刘满君, 何剑, 等. 基于马尔可夫过程的电力系统连锁故障解析模型及概率计算方法[J]. 电网技术, 2017, 41(1): 130–136
CHENG Lin, LIU Manjun, HE Jian, et al. A power system cascading outage analytic model and outage probability calculation method based on Markov process[J]. Power System Technology, 2017, 41(1): 130–136
[7] 张旒玺, 房鑫炎, 倪振华. 基于系统功效的保护及控制系统可靠性评估[J]. 电力系统保护与控制, 2009, 37(14): 63–67
ZHANG Liuxi, FANG Xinyan, NI Zhenhua. Reliability analysis of protection and control systems based on the effectiveness[J]. Power System Protection and Control, 2009, 37(14): 63–67
[8] 李俊霞, 严兵, 张爱玲, 等. 特高压直流双极区直流保护系统可靠性研究[J]. 电力系统保护与控制, 2016, 44(12): 130–136
LI Junxia, YAN Bing, ZHANG Ailing, et al. Reliability research for UHVDC bipolar area DC protection system[J]. Power System Protection and Control, 2016, 44(12): 130–136
[9] 汪隆君, 王钢, 李博. 基于半马尔可夫过程的继电保护可靠性建模[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2010, 34(18): 6–10
WANG Longjun, WANG Gang, LI Bo. A reliability modeling of a protection system based on the semi-Markov process[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2010, 34(18): 6–10
[10] 徐妍, 陆广香, 徐晓敏, 等. 关于工频变化量距离保护可靠性的研究[J]. 电力系统保护与控制, 2015, 43(20): 51–57
XU Yan, LU Guangxiang, XU Xiaomin, et al. Research on the reliability of the distance protection using power frequency variable components[J]. Power System Protection and Control, 2015, 43(20): 51–57
[11] 赵洪山, 赵航宇. 考虑元件故障率变化的配电网可靠性评估[J]. 电力系统保护与控制, 2015, 43(11): 56–62
ZHAO Hongshan, ZHAO Hangyu. Distribution system reliability analysis considering the elements failure rate changes[J]. Power System Protection and Control, 2015, 43(11): 56–62
[12] 王同文, 谢民, 孙月琴, 等. 智能变电站继电保护系统可靠性分析[J]. 电力系统保护与控制, 2015, 43(6): 58–66
WANG Tongwen, XIE Min, SUN Yueqin, et al. Analysis of reliability for relay protection systems in smart substation[J]. Power System Protection and Control, 2015, 43(6): 58–66
[13] 张雪松, 王超, 程晓东. 基于马尔可夫状态空间法的超高压电网继电保护系统可靠性分析模型[J]. 电网技术, 2008, 32(13): 94–99
ZHANG Xuesong, WANG Chao, CHENG Xiaodong. Reliability analysis model for protective relaying system of UHV power network based on Markov state-space method[J]. Power System Technology, 2008, 32(13): 94–99
[14] 戴志辉, 王增平, 焦彦军, 等. 基于缺陷分析的保护装置可靠性评价研究[J]. 电力系统保护与控制, 2013, 41(12): 54–59
DAI Zhihui, WANG Zengping, JIAO Yanjun, et al. Study on the reliability evaluation of protection devices based on defects analysis[J]. Power System Protection and Control, 2013, 41(12): 54–59
[15] 郭书祥, 吕震宙, 冯元生. 基于区间分析的结构非概率可靠性模型[J]. 计算力学学报, 2001, 18(1): 56–60
GUO Shuxiang, LU Zhenzhou, FENG Yuansheng. A non-probabilistic model of structural reliability based on interval analysis[J]. Chinese Journal of Computational Mechanics, 2001, 18(1): 56–60
[16] 李盛伟, 梁刚, 毕雯, 等. 基于广义极值分布模型的变压器寿命概率评价方法[J]. 电力系统及其自动化学报, 2017, 29(7): 131–135
LI Shengwei, LIANG Gang, BI Wen, et al. Probability evaluation method for the lifetime of transformer based on generalized extreme value distribution model[J]. Proceedings of The CSU-EPSA, 2017, 29(7): 131–135
[17] 张静伟, 任震, 黄雯莹. 直流系统可靠性故障树评估模型及应用[J]. 电力自动化设备, 2005, 25(6): 62–65
ZHANG Jingwei, REN Zhen, HUANG Wenying. FTA models and its application in HVDC system evaluation[J]. Electric Power Automation Equipment, 2005, 25(6): 62–65
[18] 韩小涛, 尹项根, 张哲. 故障树分析法在变电站通信系统可靠性分析中的应用[J]. 电网技术, 2004, 28(1): 56–59
HAN Xiaotao, YIN Xianggen, ZHANG Zhe. Application of fault tree analysis method in reliability analysis of substation communication system[J]. Power System Technology, 2004, 28(1): 56–59
[19] 沈继忱, 刘杨. ETS系统故障树建模与马尔可夫模型可靠性分析[J]. 能源与环境, 2012, 111(2): 28–29, 37
[20] 周应兵. 基于马尔可夫过程的控制系统可靠性分析[J]. 山东交通学院学报, 2005, 13(1): 7–10
ZHOU Yingbing. The reliability analysis of control system based on Markov process[J]. Journal of Shandong Jiaotong University, 2005, 13(1): 7–10
[21] THERISTIS M, PAPAZOGLOU I A. Markovian reliability analysis of standalone photovoltaic systems incorporating repairs[J]. IEEE Journal of Photovoltaics, 2014, 4(1): 414–422.
[22] DHOPLE S V, DOMINGUEZ-GARCIA A D. Estimation of photovoltaic system reliability and performance metrics[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2012, 27(1): 554–563.
[23] 杨勇, 孙洪, 何楚. 基于区域确定的分层马尔可夫模型及其MPM算法[J]. 自动化学报, 2007, 33(7): 693–697
YANG Yong, SUN Hong, HE Chu. A region-determined hierarchical Markov model and its MPM algorithm[J]. Acta Automatica Sinica, 2007, 33(7): 693–697
[24] 汪西莉, 刘芳, 焦李成. 一种分层马尔可夫图像模型及其推导算法[J]. 软件学报, 2003, 14(9): 1558–1563
WANG Xili, LIU Fang, JIAO Licheng. A hierarchical Markov image model and its inference algorithm[J]. Journal of Software, 2003, 14(9): 1558–1563

基于分层马尔可夫的可修复稳定控制系统可靠性分析

Reliability Analysis of Repairable Stability Control System Based on Hierarchical Markov

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 3

编辑推荐

Metrics

[1]	童和钦, 许剑冰, 梁师哲, 麦成, 徐海波. 面向稳控系统E1通道的网络靶场实验台的设计与实现[J]. 中国电力, 2024, 57(9): 71-79.
[2]	李碧君, 董希建, 颜云松, 夏海峰, 刘天翼. 基于控制功效受损模式的大型稳控系统可靠性评估[J]. 中国电力, 2020, 53(5): 32-38.
[3]	张世翔，丁倩. 风光互补发电系统的可靠性分析[J]. 中国电力, 2015, 48(6): 8-13.

模态框（Modal）标题

基于分层马尔可夫的可修复稳定控制系统可靠性分析

Reliability Analysis of Repairable Stability Control System Based on Hierarchical Markov

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 3

编辑推荐

Metrics