滚动多维度城市饱和负荷预测研究

doi:10.11930.2015.3.21

中国电力 ›› 2015, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (3): 21-26.DOI: 10.11930.2015.3.21

滚动多维度城市饱和负荷预测研究

赵会茹¹，周佳¹，李娜娜¹，韩新阳²，霍慧娟¹，薛万磊³

1. 华北电力大学经济与管理学院，北京 102206；
2. 国网能源研究院，北京 100052；
3. 国网山东省电力公司经济技术研究院，山东济南 252000

收稿日期:2014-12-09 出版日期:2015-03-25 发布日期:2015-11-27
作者简介:赵会茹（1963—），女，河北人，教授，从事电力经济与管理，技术经济评价理论与应用方面的研究。E-mail: huiruzhao @163.com
基金资助:
国家自然基金资助项目（71373076）；国家电网公司科技项目

Study on Urban Saturated Power Load Forecasting based on Rolling Multi-dimension Method

ZHAO Huiru¹, ZHOU Jia¹, LI Nana¹, HAN Xinyang², HUO Huijuan¹, XUE Wanlei³

1. School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China;
2. State Grid Energy Research Institute, Beijing 102209, China;
3. State Grid Shandong Electric Power Company,Power Economy & Technology Research Institute, Shandong Province, Jinan City 250002, China

Received:2014-12-09 Online:2015-03-25 Published:2015-11-27
Supported by:
This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (71373076) and State Grid of China.

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 饱和负荷的研究对城市电网远景规划以及经济社会与电网协调发展具有重要意义。首先综合考虑经济发展、产业结构、城市发展水平和居民生活水平等经济社会发展因素对饱和负荷的影响，筛选出适用于城市饱和负荷预测的经济社会发展指标；其次，介绍了用于经济社会发展指标预测的Logistic模型，并对提出的滚动多维度城市饱和负荷预测模型原理进行了阐述；最后，以北京市为例，在对其经济社会指标进行预测的基础上，运用所提出的模型对北京市饱和负荷进行了分析，实证结果表明本文提出的城市饱和负荷预测新方法是有效可行的。

关键词: 饱和负荷, 滚动多维度预测模型, 经济社会发展指标, Logistic曲线

Abstract: The study of saturated power load has important significance on long-term planning of urban power grid and coordinated development between economy society and power grid. The economic and social development indices for urban saturated power load forecasting are firstly selected with consideration of impacts of economic development, industry structure, urban development level and people’s living standards. The Logistic model of economic and social development indices forecasting is introduced. The proposed urban saturated power load forecasting model based on rolling multi-dimensions method is then analyzed. Finally, the economic and social development indices of Beijing are forecasted, and the saturated power load is analyzed by employing the proposed model. The testing result shows effectiveness and practical of the proposed method.

Key words: saturated power load, rolling multi-dimensional forecasting model, economic and social development Indicators, logistic curve

中图分类号:

TM715

赵会茹，周佳，李娜娜，韩新阳，霍慧娟，薛万磊. 滚动多维度城市饱和负荷预测研究[J]. 中国电力, 2015, 48(3): 21-26.

ZHAO Huiru, ZHOU Jia, LI Nana, HAN Xinyang, HUO Huijuan, XUE Wanlei. Study on Urban Saturated Power Load Forecasting based on Rolling Multi-dimension Method[J]. Electric Power, 2015, 48(3): 21-26.

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滚动多维度城市饱和负荷预测研究

Study on Urban Saturated Power Load Forecasting based on Rolling Multi-dimension Method

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滚动多维度城市饱和负荷预测研究

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